Published before the season. Locked. Tracked weekly. Measured publicly. No revisionism — every miss is on record.
MODEL ACCURACY (v27.0)
Overall · walk-forward validated 2016–2025
Full rankings
Based on 2025-26 performance · Updated daily
| RK | PLAYER | PTS ↕ | REB ↕ | AST ↕ | STL ↕ | BLK ↕ | 3PM ↕ | FG% ↕ | FT% ↕ | TO ↕ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Contrarian signals
Where our 2026-27 projections diverge most from 2025-26 actuals
Players We Are Buying
Projecting meaningfully higher than last season's performance
| PLAYER | 2025-26 ACTUAL | 2026-27 PROJ | CHANGE | KEY REASON* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Players We Are Fading
Projecting meaningfully lower than last season's performance
| PLAYER | 2025-26 ACTUAL | 2026-27 PROJ | CHANGE | KEY REASON* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
* Buying/fading based on TFO model 2026-27 projection vs 2025-26 actuals. Threshold: ≥6% divergence on PTS.
Market ADP comparison coming soon. Players with no projection data excluded.
Accountability
We don't hide from our errors. Every miss makes the model better.
Projected rank
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Actual rank
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What we learned: Full miss analysis published at season lock on October 1, 2026.
Projected rank
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Actual rank
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What we learned: Every projection is tracked from tip-off. Nothing is quietly updated.
Projected rank
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Actual rank
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What we learned: When the model is wrong, we explain why in the Model Journal.
* Full 2025-26 miss analysis will be published when projections are locked on October 1, 2026.
Under the hood
Base stats, rolling windows, team context, opponent matchups, schedule compression, injury signals, age curves, and archetype embeddings — built from 25 seasons of NBA data.
Train on 2001–2024, test on 2025-26 holdout. No look-ahead bias. Every accuracy number was measured on data the model had never seen.
Season projections are published on October 1st and never quietly updated. If we were wrong, you'll see it — accuracy published every Monday.
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